I interact with many Bears and Packers fans and the second the Soldier Field crowd felt the Seahawks were comfortably handled and started the "Green Bay Sucks" chant the excitement and anticipation for the Packers vs. Bears NFC Championship showdown in Chicago was sky high. And with each passing moment the excitement, anticipation and tension is building. By Tuesday fans were telling me they were already having trouble sleeping because of the excitement.
There is much to be excited about on both sides. Most importantly the two greatest rivals in professional sports are playing for a spot in the Super Bowl. Sunday evening one team's fans will be signing from the mountain tops and the other's will be looking at a decade worth of humiliation. I one fell swoop one fan base will be given the keys to the Super Bowl, a pair of dancing shoes and a map to the other fan's grave site.
Oh, there also is the matter of what will happen on the field. If you are a Packer fan reading this you already know how the Packers can win and if you are a Bears fan you don't believe for a second that that is a possibility, so I'm going to focus on how the Bears will win this game.
Even though the Bears beat the Packers in Soldier Field this year and finished ahead of Green Bay for the NFC North division title, public perception once again favors the Packers. There is reasoning to support this, the Packers have beaten in succession the Giants, Bears, Eagles and thoroughly embarrassed the Falcons. Combined with the high level of play of star quarterback Aaron Rodgers there is much reason for excitement in cheese land. Earlier in the season, the slight of Bears bothered me, but the Bears have made a season of doing things they weren't supposed to do and beating teams they weren't supposed to beat, so I'm fine with the Bears being the underdog and I'm sure Lovie Smith is too. The Bears are also on an impressive run winning eight of their last ten games with wins over the Eagles, Jets and Seahawks. Being at home should help the Bears, I see this match up as more toe to toe, than a clear advantage for either side.
The key for the Bears when they have the ball will be to run it well and run it often. The Bears season turned from mediocre to excellent when the coaches started calling more hand offs. With the Bears athletic guards and mauling tackles, the line is built to run and Bear receivers block down field as well as any group in the league. Successful runs will help keep the Bears out of predictable passing situations, wear on Green Bay's elite pass rushers and set up play action. Should the Bears have success running against Green Bay's 3-4, it will be interesting to see if the Packers would go to a 4-4-3 or maybe just play Charles Woodson as a fifth linebacker.
Now the Bears will have to put the ball in the air to win too, so giving Jay Cutler time to find receivers and make good decisions will be crucial. In this season's match up in Lambeau, the speedy receivers Devin Hester and Johnny Knox were pushed around and a non-factor. These two are too dynamic for the Bears to let that happen again, they have to find ways to get open. Earl Bennett didn't play in that game, hopefully his presence will help create space for the Bears speedsters. Having a good play action game going will be big for Greg Olsen, especially if Green Bay has to adjust to stop the run.
Green Bay's offense is coming off an absolute destruction of the Falcon's defense in the Georgia Dome, but the good news for Bears fans is this week the game is outside and the Bears actually have a defense. In week 16 the Packers put up 45 points, 404 passing yards, 4 touchdowns and no interceptions on the Giants. The very next week the Bears held them to 10 points, 229 passing yards, 1 touchdown and picked off Rodgers once. Getting pressure on Rodgers without blitzing will be the big key for the Bears defense. Other than bringing nickel back DJ Moore off the edge, the Bears blitz game sucks and the secondary isn't good enough to check the Packers stable of receivers with out help from the front. Green Bay has struggled to run the ball most of the season, but they feel behind James Starks they now have a new dimension. This will certainly be put to the test as almost nobody ran well against the Bears second ranked run defense. Most teams need to use seven or eight defenders to handle a running attack, the Bear can control even good running teams with Julius Peppers, Israel Idodije, Anthony Adams, Matt Toeaina, Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher. Now the Bears run defense is a full team effort, but those six take a ton of pressure off the secondary. It will be interesting to see how the Bears handle passes out of the Packers three back wishbone formation that will tempt the safeties to move up. Turnovers are always a key for any Smith coached defense. The Bears were third in the league in take aways and while the Packers aren't the most interception prone team, the do fumble, so the Bears will need to make sure the ball is coming out.
The Bears have hands down the best special team unit in the NFL and have for years. Green Bay better be 110% on any special teams play or the Bears will tip the scales. Every special teams play, extra points, everything. A big challenge will be making Green Bay punt from deep inside their own territory forcing the Packers to kick to Hester, or give up field position kicking away from him.
Official prediction: Several hundred Packer fans being serenaded by tens of thousands of Bears fans. Run the ball, stop the run. Bears 22, Packers 20
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