I follow a lot of Packer media and know a lot of Packers fans. Common (but not exclusive) perception among people of this ilk is that the Packers are the better team. Because they lose more or something like that. A lot of the perception stems from the fact that when Green Bay wins, the do it with more flourish. The Packers have a point differential of +141 to the Bears +55. Really this should serve as a reminder that under Mike McCarthy the Packers are 5-16 in games decided by four points or fewer. The Bears have won four games decided by four or fewer this season alone. More importantly in this odd battle of perception the Bears always seem to lose (I guess I'd rather win battle of reality) let us not forget the Bears beat the Packers head to head and while Chicago benefited from a bizarre rule to hold on and beat the Lions in week one, at no point did the Bears actually lose to the Lions. The Bears may not blow many teams away on the score board, but they are one of the few teams in the NFL that can beat you with offense, defense and special teams.
The Bears have been talking the talk, saying they will go all out to beat the Packers, despited more than likely being locked in to the two seed with a first round bye. The prospect of sweeping the division and possibly keeping Green Bay out of the playoffs are on the table for the Bears, but that seems like small consolation vs the prospect of having to start Todd Collins in a playoff game. I think the Bears will pull key starters early in this one.
Let's say the Bears phone this one in, escorting the Packers to the playoffs like a boozed up prom date. In the playoffs teams aren't very likely to get blown out (remember cheese doodles if you are in, the Giants are out). Maybe here and there, but a deep playoff run from a wild card (which the Packers would be) would probably take 2-3 wins where the game's final score is with in one possession. Against teams that have made the playoffs the Packers are 2-3 beating the Eagles by 7 and the Jets by 9 and losing to the Bears by 3, the Falcons by 3 and the Patriots by 4. By contrast the Bears are 2-1 vs teams that have made the playoffs beating the Eagles by 4, the Jets by 4 and losing to Patriots by 29. The Bears 1-2 against teams that could still make the playoffs beating the Packers by 3 and losing to the Seahawks by 3 and the Giants by 14. I didn't list the Packers win over the Giants, because should the Giants make the playoffs the Packers wouldn't rendering their record against anyone moot.
So I guess the Bears would be more likely than the Packers to get beat by multiple scores in the playoffs, but both teams are equally beatable. In an elimination tournament it doesn't matter if Matt Flynn keeps you within four of the Patriots, fewer points and you are out. By beating Green Bay in week three and not losing to Detroit, the Bears are in a position to have to win at least one home game and at most one road game to get to the Super Bowl. If Green Bay gets in, they would have to go to Philadelphia, a place they won this season, but Mike Vick only played the second half, rallying for 17 of the Eagles 20 points to get the Eagles within seven. If the Pack could duplicate their success in Philadelphia, they would most likely go to Atlanta, where they have already lost and should they advance they would most likely go to Chicago (where they have already lost) or to New Orleans to face the defending champs. I don't think either of these teams will be playing on super Sunday, but I'd much rather be in Lovie Smith's shoes.
Wait by the phone cheese doodles, but don't be surprised if the Bears don't come calling, they have a date with a prettier team, the New Orleans Saints.
Packers 34, Bears 10 Bears pull starters in the first half, Green Bay pulls them in the second and Abraham clicks over to the Badgers basketball game at five.
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