Brett Favre Is A Pimp

Well folks, the Green Bay Packers went ahead and ruined a perfectly good NFL season.  Ok, I take that back.  If anything I'm just pissed at the Bears.  They had two shots to put a bullet in that iconic "G" and both times the gun jammed.  But I'm not really here to reflect on Super Bowl XLV, if like it you already know and if you don't there is no reason to go back down that road.  There will be some reflection, however, hearkening back to a time when Brett Favre and the Dallas Cowboys ruled the NFL.

In the post Super Bowl afterglow much has been made of Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers moving out from under the shadow of Favre.  While the two will forever be liked through Favre's seeming endless and overwhelmingly uncomfortable "retirement", it's just as unfair to compare Favre to Rogders as it is to compare Rodgers to Favre.  They are both spectacular quarterbacks that happen to have played for the same franchise in succession, but each is his own entity.  If any one has been validated in relation to Favre it's Packers General Manager Ted Thompson.  In bringing joy to the hearts of Packers fans Rodgers has taken a huge leap towards Favre, but in relation to the impact and legacy Favre has left behind, Rodgers has taken but a baby step.  It is also in the best interest of the Packer fan to let Rodgers be Rodgers and not Favre, because Brett was once a young, brash extrovert, not unlike Rodgers, but when it was all said and done Favre was just a good old fashioned 'vert.

Secondly, as punishment for losing Super Bowl XLV we will reminisce about the Steelers previous Super Bowl failure, Super Bowl XXX.  In a time when the wild and crazy Dallas Cowboys were easily NFL public enemy number one, the nation welcome the thought of the return to glory of the famed "Steel Curtain".  Dallas had destroyed the Buffalo Bills in Super Bowls XXVII and XXVIII by a combined score of 82-30, but the juggernaut was ripe for the picking in Super Bowl XXX.  Twice in the second half the Steelers were with in six points or fewer of the Cowboys, but Steelers quarterback Neil O'Donnell couldn't help throwing the ball to Cowboy's cornerback Larry Brown who snared two passes, setting up 14 Cowboys second half points en route to a 27-17 victory.  Maybe if somebody had told then Steelers linebacker Kevin Greene "It's time!" everything would have been different.

Well that's it folks, Abraham's House Of Foolishness has thrown yet another football season in to the trash and not a moment too soon.  Now time to focus on basketball, beer and movies before the boys of summer start rustling around in earnest.

Country Roads, Take Me Home

Well cheese doodles, due to the respective play of the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, today's NFL regular season showdown between the two greatest sports rivals has been reduced to an extra exhibition game for the Bears (Of course assuming either the Falcons beat the Panthers or Saints beat the Buccaneers, but then again we all knew Joe Webb would lead the Vikings to victory of the Eagles, right?).

I follow a lot of Packer media and know a lot of Packers fans.  Common (but not exclusive) perception among people of this ilk is that the Packers are the better team.  Because they lose more or something like that.  A lot of the perception stems from the fact that when Green Bay wins, the do it with more flourish.  The Packers have a point differential of +141 to the Bears +55.  Really this should serve as a reminder that under Mike McCarthy the Packers are 5-16 in games decided by four points or fewer.  The Bears have won four games decided by four or fewer this season alone.  More importantly in this odd battle of perception the Bears always seem to lose (I guess I'd rather win battle of reality) let us not forget the Bears beat the Packers head to head and while Chicago benefited from a bizarre rule to hold on and beat the Lions in week one, at no point did the Bears actually lose to the Lions.  The Bears may not blow many teams away on the score board, but they are one of the few teams in the NFL that can beat you with offense, defense and special teams.

The Bears have been talking the talk, saying they will go all out to beat the Packers, despited more than likely being locked in to the two seed with a first round bye.  The prospect of sweeping the division and possibly keeping Green Bay out of the playoffs are on the table for the Bears, but that seems like small consolation vs the prospect of having to start Todd Collins in a playoff game.  I think the Bears will pull key starters early in this one.

Let's say the Bears phone this one in, escorting the Packers to the playoffs like a boozed up prom date.  In the playoffs teams aren't very likely to get blown out (remember cheese doodles if you are in, the Giants are out).  Maybe here and there, but a deep playoff run from a wild card (which the Packers would be) would probably take 2-3 wins where the game's final score is with in one possession.  Against teams that have made the playoffs the Packers are 2-3 beating the Eagles by 7 and the Jets by 9 and losing to the Bears by 3, the Falcons by 3 and the Patriots by 4.  By contrast the Bears are 2-1 vs teams that have made the playoffs beating the Eagles by 4, the Jets by 4 and losing to Patriots by 29.  The Bears 1-2 against teams that could still make the playoffs beating the Packers by 3 and losing to the Seahawks by 3 and the Giants by 14.  I didn't list the Packers win over the Giants, because should the Giants make the playoffs the Packers wouldn't rendering their record against anyone moot.

So I guess the Bears would be more likely than the Packers to get beat by multiple scores in the playoffs, but both teams are equally beatable.  In an elimination tournament it doesn't matter if Matt Flynn keeps you within four of the Patriots, fewer points and you are out.  By beating Green Bay in week three and not losing to Detroit, the Bears are in a position to have to win at least one home game and at most one road game to get to the Super Bowl.  If Green Bay gets in, they would have to go to Philadelphia, a place they won this season, but Mike Vick only played the second half, rallying for 17 of the Eagles 20 points to get the Eagles within seven.  If the Pack could duplicate their success in Philadelphia, they would most likely go to Atlanta, where they have already lost and should they advance they would most likely go to Chicago (where they have already lost) or to New Orleans to face the defending champs.  I don't think either of these teams will be playing on super Sunday, but I'd much rather be in Lovie Smith's shoes.

Wait by the phone cheese doodles, but don't be surprised if the Bears don't come calling, they have a date with a prettier team, the New Orleans Saints.

Packers 34, Bears 10  Bears pull starters in the first half, Green Bay pulls them in the second and Abraham clicks over to the Badgers basketball game at five.

Northern Exposure

Tomorrow the co-leaders of the NFC North, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, both face staunch tests against fellow NFC elites, the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons respectively. 

Despite the Bears consistent trudge along with the Packers, (not to mention head to head victory), popular opinion seems to be Chicago is but a bug on the Packers interstate to the NFC North crown.  A lot of this perception is based on the Bears victories have coming against teams with a combined record of 23-49, beating only two teams (Green Bay and Miami) with at least a .500 winning percentage.  Fair enough, but before we hand Green Bay the keys to the car keep in mind their wins have come against teams with a combined record of 26-37, with two wins coming against the 3-7 Minnesota Vikings, beating two teams, (New York Jets and Philadelphia), with at least a .500 wining percentage.

Green Bay has a few advantages in the war of perception, winning with more flourish, out scoring their opponents 252-146, (Chicago has out scored their opponents 191-146) and the Packers have knocked off two first place teams to Chicago's one.  Also Green Bay is coming off a playoff season in 2009, whereas Chicago finished 2009 7-9, losing twice to the Packers. 

With both squads facing first place teams tomorrow, we will not only get a better feel for how these two teams relate to each other, but how well the top of the NFC North stands up to the top of the NFC.

Grant Recinded

Well cheese doodles, how are you feeling this morning?  Yesterday news was handed down the Green Bay Packers starting half back Ryan Grant would be lost for the 2010 NFL season.  So what does this mean for a team poised to make a run at a return to glory?  Doom?  Probably not.  Nothing?  Definitely not.

What makes the Green Bay offense so deadly is their multiple wide receiver sets allowing star quarterback Aaron Rodgers to victimize the opposition's reserve secondary players.  That doesn't mean a strong rushing attack isn't important and Grant was certainly strong, rushing for over 1,200 yard in both of the past two seasons.  Having a dangerous ground game adds another dimension to the high powered Packer offense, keeping opposing defenses from loading up against the pass, particularly teams with a strong pass rush that can take advantage of the Packers suspect offensive line.  Green Bay has an explosive back up in Brandon Jackson, but he has never attempted more than 75 rushes in any of his four seasons.  Jackson's 175 career carries are 107 fewer than Grant had last season alone, so whether or not he can pick up the slack remains to be seen.  Of bigger concern is what would happen if Jackson were to also suffer a serious injury.  The Packers current roster offers two fullbacks, Korey Hall and Quinn Johnson, as well as half backs John Kuhn and the recently added Dimitri Nance.  The quartet boasts a total of 20 NFL carries, all by Kuhn.

For the time being Green Bay is still a playoff worthy team with an explosive offense and opportunistic defense anchored by rising star Clay Matthews and 2009 NFL Defensive Player Of The Year Charles Woodson, but team depth has taken a serious blow.  A lot of an NFL season is surviving injuries and losing a key weapon in the first week of the season sets the Packers back in the race for NFC dominance with the Minnesota Vikings and New Orleans Saints.