Country Roads, Take Me Home

Well cheese doodles, due to the respective play of the Green Bay Packers and Chicago Bears, today's NFL regular season showdown between the two greatest sports rivals has been reduced to an extra exhibition game for the Bears (Of course assuming either the Falcons beat the Panthers or Saints beat the Buccaneers, but then again we all knew Joe Webb would lead the Vikings to victory of the Eagles, right?).

I follow a lot of Packer media and know a lot of Packers fans.  Common (but not exclusive) perception among people of this ilk is that the Packers are the better team.  Because they lose more or something like that.  A lot of the perception stems from the fact that when Green Bay wins, the do it with more flourish.  The Packers have a point differential of +141 to the Bears +55.  Really this should serve as a reminder that under Mike McCarthy the Packers are 5-16 in games decided by four points or fewer.  The Bears have won four games decided by four or fewer this season alone.  More importantly in this odd battle of perception the Bears always seem to lose (I guess I'd rather win battle of reality) let us not forget the Bears beat the Packers head to head and while Chicago benefited from a bizarre rule to hold on and beat the Lions in week one, at no point did the Bears actually lose to the Lions.  The Bears may not blow many teams away on the score board, but they are one of the few teams in the NFL that can beat you with offense, defense and special teams.

The Bears have been talking the talk, saying they will go all out to beat the Packers, despited more than likely being locked in to the two seed with a first round bye.  The prospect of sweeping the division and possibly keeping Green Bay out of the playoffs are on the table for the Bears, but that seems like small consolation vs the prospect of having to start Todd Collins in a playoff game.  I think the Bears will pull key starters early in this one.

Let's say the Bears phone this one in, escorting the Packers to the playoffs like a boozed up prom date.  In the playoffs teams aren't very likely to get blown out (remember cheese doodles if you are in, the Giants are out).  Maybe here and there, but a deep playoff run from a wild card (which the Packers would be) would probably take 2-3 wins where the game's final score is with in one possession.  Against teams that have made the playoffs the Packers are 2-3 beating the Eagles by 7 and the Jets by 9 and losing to the Bears by 3, the Falcons by 3 and the Patriots by 4.  By contrast the Bears are 2-1 vs teams that have made the playoffs beating the Eagles by 4, the Jets by 4 and losing to Patriots by 29.  The Bears 1-2 against teams that could still make the playoffs beating the Packers by 3 and losing to the Seahawks by 3 and the Giants by 14.  I didn't list the Packers win over the Giants, because should the Giants make the playoffs the Packers wouldn't rendering their record against anyone moot.

So I guess the Bears would be more likely than the Packers to get beat by multiple scores in the playoffs, but both teams are equally beatable.  In an elimination tournament it doesn't matter if Matt Flynn keeps you within four of the Patriots, fewer points and you are out.  By beating Green Bay in week three and not losing to Detroit, the Bears are in a position to have to win at least one home game and at most one road game to get to the Super Bowl.  If Green Bay gets in, they would have to go to Philadelphia, a place they won this season, but Mike Vick only played the second half, rallying for 17 of the Eagles 20 points to get the Eagles within seven.  If the Pack could duplicate their success in Philadelphia, they would most likely go to Atlanta, where they have already lost and should they advance they would most likely go to Chicago (where they have already lost) or to New Orleans to face the defending champs.  I don't think either of these teams will be playing on super Sunday, but I'd much rather be in Lovie Smith's shoes.

Wait by the phone cheese doodles, but don't be surprised if the Bears don't come calling, they have a date with a prettier team, the New Orleans Saints.

Packers 34, Bears 10  Bears pull starters in the first half, Green Bay pulls them in the second and Abraham clicks over to the Badgers basketball game at five.

They Turn Me On When They Take It Off

That's right kids, your Minnesota Vikings are celebrating fifty years of football existence by going topless.  Considering most of the Vikings' existence has been erratic and poorly thought out, this seems about right.  Ladies and gents, a big round of applause for your Minnesota Vikings.

Chances are, this game won't be about the Vikings, though.  If the juggernaut known as the New England Patriots can knock off the Green Bay Packers Sunday night, the Chicago Bears would be in position to take the NFC North division title with a win over the Vikings.  Keeping in mind that the Patriots are tearing up the league's best defenses at a break neck pace and the Packers are likely to be with out starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, it's likely the Bears will be playing for the division title.  However this is the NFL and nothing should be assumed.

Either way, this is a huge game for the Bears playoff chances.  If the Bears win they would enter the final game of the season against the Packers with zero division losses (Green Bay will have two) and the Packers would need the Bears to lose to the New York Jets next week to control their own destiny, should they beat New England and the New York Giants.

The Vikings once again found out the hard way that using a garbage bag for a roof isn't the greatest idea, and due to the Metrodome's collapsed roof, Monday night's game will be held at the University of Minnesota's TCF Bank Stadium.  Logistical nightmare anyone?  TCF seats roughly 15,000 fewer fans and 2,000 of the capacity is standing room only.  After being forced to host the Giants in Detroit last week, the Vikings did not want to lose another home game, especially with their celebration planned.  As a Big 10 university stadium, TCF does not serve alcohol, thus has no beer taps and out of respect for this policy packaged beer will not be served.  Game time temperatures are expected to be in the 0 to <0 range.  I'm not sure I'd want to be the one to tell 50,000 norsicles they can't have beer.  Several players have expressed concern about playing on a surface that doesn't use heating coils to help keep the field thaw.  The plan is to use a system of heaters and tarps to keep the field safe.  Personally I think this is a great and unique opportunity for the Vikings to do what they should do and play football outdoors.

Also of concern to the Vikings is that because of injury they will most likely be starting rookie third string quarterback Joe Webb.  This would be the third time this season the Bears have gone up against a team's third string quarterback (@ Miami, @ Detroit), the Bears have won the previous two opportunities.  Normally the outdoor setting would be a huge advantage to the outdoor playing Bears facing the indoor playing Vikings (the Vikings are just 1-8 in their last nine trips to Soldier Field), but this Bears team is built for speed and if the footing is less than ideal that could actually help the Vikings.  The Bears defense hasn't forced a turnover in the past two games, surprising because the Bears are one of the best in the league at turning the ball over.  It's probable this streak will end.

The Vikings will have their usual compliment of explosive players on hand, but this is a team the Bears roughed up in Chicago when Brett Favre was the quarterback and as the temperatures drop the hapless Vikings could start thinking about off season vacations in Cozumel, especially if the Bears can get up on the scoreboard early.

Prediction:  Division Champion Bears 20, Vikings 10

Initiate Dream Sequence

If you are any kind of fan of the NFL you are surely aware of the huge Sunday show down between the Chicago Bears and New England Patriots.  Now there were AFC teams that created bigger preseason  buzz than the Patriots, but they have stayed the course, surprised a lot of people and deserve to be where they are heading in to this game.  That being said, it's hard to see a scenario where this scrappy bunch knocks off the juggernaut known as the Monsters Of The Midway.

The biggest issue for New England with be how they deal with the Bears terrifying defense.  The passing game will receive little support from their unheralded running backs, so it could be a long day for quarterback Steve Grogan and a huge day for Bears defensive end Richard Dent.  As always the Bears defense will be forcing turnovers and you never want to rule out a safety.  If New England is to have any offensive success in this game it may come from getting the ball to their exciting young wide receiver Irving Fryar.

The match ups don't get much better for the Patriots when the Bears have the ball.  A talented linebacking corps led by Andre Tippett could limit the damage done by Bears running back Walter Payton, but the Bears over all running attack should be just fine and produce multiple scores.  The Bears passing attack is no slouch either, quarterback Jim McMahon and receiver Willie Gault can be a handful, especially in big games.

All in all, the Bears team is one of destiny.
Official Prediction:  Bears 46, Patriots 10

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Ugh, where am I?  I better find my rotary phone and call for help.

The fact of the matter is, kids, that since the Bears historic beat down of the Patriots in Super Bowl XX, the Patriots are 5-1 vs Chicago, including a pair of late season wins at Soldier Field in seasons (1994, 2006) that both teams made the playoffs.

The Bears currently hold the second longest winning streak in the NFL at five games, but New England is coming off a thrashing of the New York Jets and their highly regarded defense.  The Bears will have the home crowd and the weather is expected to be of the nasty cold and windy variety on Sunday, but this isn't the Atlanta Falcons coming to Chicago.  The Patriots play outdoors, in weather similar to that of the mighty Midwest and have already won a November game at Pittsburgh.

Official Updated (2010) Prediction:  Patriots 27, Bears 20

Number 2 In The Standings, Number 10 In Our Hearts

Anybody that knows me, knows I love to mock the Chicago Cubs (and there is much to mock).  A favorite target of my buffoonery was the overly emotional, often misspoken radio color commentator Ron Santo.  But unlike my criticisms of the various ass clowns that inhabit the bleachers (or left field) at Wrigley Field, my teasing of Santo the kind reserved for good friends and loved ones.

I'm too young to remember Santo as a player, I don't like the Cubs and didn't think he was a good broadcaster.  What struck me about Ron was the way Cubs fans connected with him.  You may find it hard to believe, but some of my favorite people are Cubs fans and they lived and died (so to speak) with Ronnie.  His pain was their pain when Brant Brown dropped the ball, when Sammy Sosa corked his bat and when "you know who" caught that foul ball.  His laughter was their laughter when he burned his toupee in Shea Stadium.  His joy was their joy when the Cubs won their division.

Looks like it's time to break out This Old Cub.  Good bye Ronnie, you will be missed.  Even by the enemy.

Fade. To. Black.

Detroit Lions wide receiver Nate Burleson has guarenteed (a Roy Williams favorite) the 2-9 Lions will defeat the 8-3 Chicago Bears when the two teams meet at Ford Field in Detroit on Sunday.  Is he familiar with Lions football?  I'm not sure they should guarantee a win over Michigan State.

Something for Nate to take in to consideration is that Chicago has won the last five meetings by a combined score of 165-91.  Also in the Bears last three seasons of consequence (2001, 2005, 2006) the Bears have swept the Lions.  All three seasons the second win has come at Detroit.  Maybe Burleson is drawing some confidence off the teams' first meeting when Chicago survived a late Lions charge with help from a bizarre NFL rule.  That was a different Lions team (two quarterbacks and 9 losses ago) and this is a much improved Bears team.  Also Detroit is great at finding ways to lose, posting a record of 4-39 since the start of the 2007 season.

I don't watch or follow the Lions enough to pretend to break this game down beyond Ndamukong Suh, good, Detroit Lions, bad.  Calvin Johnson, good, Matthew Stafford, hurt (again).  Shaun Hill, hurt, Drew Stanton (he of 49 QB rating), starting quarterback.

Maybe the Lions will heed the call of the Burleson, but the Lions are bad at football and have been for some time.  Since the Lions last playoff appearance in 1999 the rest of the NFC North Division (Bears, Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers) has combined to go to the NFC Championship game four times, with each franchise going at least once.

Fast money:  Bears 34, Lions 10

Northern Exposure

Tomorrow the co-leaders of the NFC North, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, both face staunch tests against fellow NFC elites, the Philadelphia Eagles and Atlanta Falcons respectively. 

Despite the Bears consistent trudge along with the Packers, (not to mention head to head victory), popular opinion seems to be Chicago is but a bug on the Packers interstate to the NFC North crown.  A lot of this perception is based on the Bears victories have coming against teams with a combined record of 23-49, beating only two teams (Green Bay and Miami) with at least a .500 winning percentage.  Fair enough, but before we hand Green Bay the keys to the car keep in mind their wins have come against teams with a combined record of 26-37, with two wins coming against the 3-7 Minnesota Vikings, beating two teams, (New York Jets and Philadelphia), with at least a .500 wining percentage.

Green Bay has a few advantages in the war of perception, winning with more flourish, out scoring their opponents 252-146, (Chicago has out scored their opponents 191-146) and the Packers have knocked off two first place teams to Chicago's one.  Also Green Bay is coming off a playoff season in 2009, whereas Chicago finished 2009 7-9, losing twice to the Packers. 

With both squads facing first place teams tomorrow, we will not only get a better feel for how these two teams relate to each other, but how well the top of the NFC North stands up to the top of the NFC.

Purple Is A Girls Name

Ok folks, it's going to be a "quick and dirty" breakdown of Bears vs. Vikings, because in less than five hours Soldier Field will welcome those flaxen haired vixens from the big garbage bag in the sky.

This season's edition of the Norski's has been on a quite a bumpy ride.  The head coach Brad Childress is pretty much universally hated by everybody associated with the Vikings, wide receiver Randy Moss was traded for and released after four games for general douchery and of course prima donna quarterback Brett Favre has been dealing with blow back from texting pictures of his penis.  You heard me.  All this and Vikings boast a less than stellar record of three wins, five losses.  Not exactly what was expected from a team that was on Favre interception away from the Super Bowl last season (Where have we heard this before?).

I was listening to a local radio show this week, and when discussing this game there were comments to the effect of how Favre always roughs up the Bears.  Looks like somebody is stuck in the '90s.  In his last eight games against the Bears Favre is 2-6, winning just one of his last four appearances at Soldier Field and that win came against Chicago's back ups as the Bears rested their starters in preparation for their Super Bowl XLI run.  The Vikings have struggled at Soldier Field as well, winning just once in their last nine trips.

Despite all these concerns Minnesota feels they are primed to make move to get back in to the playoff chase and a win at Chicago would go a long way in improving their standing.  Meanwhile Chicago has used a stingy, opportunistic defense and resourceful special teams to over come a poor, sloppy offense (save for a few shinning moments) to post a record of five wins three losses, trailing the front running Packers by just one half game.  The fact of the matter is the Bears have defeated only one team with a winning record (see front running Packers).  If the Bears want to keep hope alive they would be well served to put Minnesota down as they enter and absolute meat grinder finish.

I watched an episode of the Andy Griffith Show yesterday and Sheriff Taylor proclaimed "the blue and orange wins every time".  I hope you're right sheriff, but I haven't felt good about this game all week.  Mostly because the combination of the Bears swiss cheese offensive line and struggles to protect their turn over prone ball handlers.

Official Prediction:  Vikings 25, Bears 17.  Sigh......you know what always makes me feel better?  Jen Sterger.  Am I right, Brett?